About Iran, as I always say, Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast
Understanding culture and how it dictates societies, moulds groupthink, influences people’s thoughts, rationalizations (or lack thereof), behaviour, habits, customs, world view, mentality, beliefs, history, conflicts, etc., particularly as it applies to the Middle East, is something that can’t be overlooked. Westerners need to understand that culture is a factor in conflicts and wars. As many of you have heard me say many times over, “Culture eats strategy for breakfast.” (I feel the need to repeatedly explain that the quote originated with business management guru Peter Drucker, but I apply the phrase to human cultures, in a sort of anthroplogical way, because it works so well in this context.)
For decades, our Western educational institutions and sociopolitical narratives have been trying to convince all of us that all cultures are the same when they are not– and these narratives are often paid for by the government to set up policy. It’s a form of propaganda and gaslighting. Having worked, studied and lived in a variety of different countries, cultures and societies in the world, I can emphatically say no, not all cultures are the same.. A society that believes in sacrificing babies and eating human flesh is not the same as Florentine Rennaisance Italian culture nor today’s fundamental Western culture and its values— However, the UK has just passed a Bill that allows for the abortion of babies up to birth and, ironically, there are primitive tribes who would be horrified by that. An indigenous tribe in the Amazon rainforest of Brazil called the Pirahã have ‘a cultural practice where they do not kill anything that is not yet born.’
In the Middle East, there is a culture that admires the “Strong Horse”, where they favour and respect the take-no-shit strong leaders, the tough guys. The first time I really locked onto the term ‘Strong Horse’ as applied to the Middle East was because of American journalist, author, and Middle East expert Lee Smith, whom I’ve met and had the pleasure of knowing. He wrote a book called ‘The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations‘. When I speak of the Strong Horse, I include both Arab and Persian, i.e., Iranian, cultures as having a Strong Horse perspective of the world.
Saddam Hussein of Iraq was both feared and respected by Iraqis and other Arab nations, that is, until he invaded Kuwait in 1990– Kuwait and many other Arab nations backed Saddam in the Iran-Iraq War (22 September 1980 – 20 August 1988), calling him ‘the Saviour of the Arab World.’ Arabs thought he was the Strong Horse.
The late Syrian dictator, President Hafez al-Assad (6 October 1930 – 10 June 2000) was a brutal leader and simultaneously respected. In 1982, Hafez, a secular Ba’athist, crushed an Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood uprising in Hama and killed thousands– nobody is sure how many were killed. This massacre virtually ended the Islamist uprising.
Hafez’s son, Bashar al-Assad, took power after his father died in 2000. Bashar eventually had to deal with the so-called Arab Spring and foreign meddling that contributed to the Syrian Civil War that kicked off in 2011. Bashar was repressive, needless to say, but was respected by supporters and allies, including Iran.
Bashar was removed from power in 2024 after Damascus fell to another Strong Horse, Ahmed al-Sharaa, (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani/Golani), a Sunni Islamist and former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an organization that had had affiliations with al-Qaeda.
These are recent historic examples of “Strong Horse Doctrine”– as Smith calls it– in the Mideast, but there are many more to reference going back centuries throughout Arab Islamic conquests, Sunni-Shia conflicts, various Caliphates, various Islamic dynasties and their leaders, the Umayyad, the Fatimid, the Almohad, Persian conquests, Seljuk Turkish conquests, the Ottoman empire, etc. In other words, the Strong Horse Doctrine is a cultural (and social) phenomenon. It has its roots in religious doctrine and context, but I won’t get into that here.
The US Bombs Iran’s Nuclear Facilities for Peace
As I am writing this, 🟢Fox News is reporting ‘BREAKING: Trump announces Iran, Israel have agreed to ‘complete and total ceasefire‘
“The President, without, knock on wood, having a single American casualty, obliterated the Iranian nuclear program…
What that means, I think, is we have to talk to Iran and, of course, to Israel about what the future holds.”
..where we can have long-term peace in the region.” — Vice President Vance
‘Culture eats strategy for breakfast’ applies here.
Some years ago, I said on an American radio show that Obama and his administration were full of hubris driven by naivete when it came to Middle East policies, especially with Iran. In other words, they appeared weak and foolish to Iran’s Mullahs. Obama believed if you are nice, i.e. America, the other nation will be nice back. It’s not the reality of the world, now is it? The Iran Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which Obama helped create, was a farce; it was fiction, which only offered a short-term solution where the Iranians agreed to not pursue enriching uranium to weapon-grade and not building the bomb for a short period. So the solution was temporary, not permanent.
Obama released billions of dollars in funds and gold to Iran as part of the agreement, a gesture of good faith. Of course, the Shia fanatics in Tehran used the money for their proxy terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria… Meanwhile, the Iranians never stopped trying to enrich their uranium with ambitions to build the bomb. This is why Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
So, to get the point, Trump is an isolationist; he doesn’t like wars. For his first term, he campaigned on a platform of pulling US troops out of wars and keeping the US out of wars.
When it came to Iran, Trump and his administration were not going to play the games the Ayatollahs in Iran were playing with the previous Democrat Presidents. Seeing themselves as the Strong Horses (and as Shia Islamist supremacists), the Iranians have played the Obama and Biden administrations for years. Deception, as it stands with the Ayatollahs, is encouraged within their doctrine. Understanding the Shia extremist Strong Horses, President Trump and his team decided to play their own game, apply it, and speak a language the Mullahs understand.
The US bombed the three nuclear facilities in Iran, likely destroying their capabilties to build nuclear bombs for a very long time. And with that, and mission accomplished, by striking at the heart of the matter and staying on point, after decades of Iranian daily calls for the destruction of Israel, desctruction of the US, destruction of the UK– this is policy according to the Supreme Leader Khameini– the President of the US said they were open to discuss peace. Of course, Trump warned that if Iran retaliated, the US would hit the country even harder. In other words, this US administration spoke the Strong Horse language that the Iranian theocray understands, the language of reality, of cultural understanding, a language of strategy and realpolitik.
Look what happened; the Iranians have agreed to a ceasefire and might actually try to behave for a while at least, but let’s see. As Trump and Vance said, the door was open to talks because this administration did not want to go to war. The Iranians are so weak that they couldn’t go to war even if they wanted to, and this is likely what the US factored in.
So, the gamble of bombing the nuclear facilities to force Iran to the table to talk peace was more of a calculated endeavour… Know your enemy. Understand your enemy. Culture eats strategy for breakfast.
There is much more I could write about how this ceasefire might turn out– lots of variables, factors and possibilities, both negative and positive, will it hold?, etc– but perhaps that will be for another blog.
–RdM
And see LinkedIn posting: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/royce-de-melo-39172813_twelvedaywar-ceasefire-iranisraelwar-activity-7343055202712764419-X0y2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAALG3h0BmCuAbEV3iAYJNZHCQ1bHqD_qO9k
Addendum 24 June 2025
BBC News: Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran as he accuses both of violating ceasefire. See: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt
- US President Donald Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran, using an expletive as he accuses both sides of violating the ceasefire
- Israel says it has hit an Iranian radar but has “refrained from further attacks” after PM Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Trump
- Explosions have been heard in Iran, residents tell BBC Persian
- Israel says missiles were launched by Tehran after the truce took effect – Iran denies launching fresh attacks
- Overnight, before the ceasefire was confirmed, both sides exchanged fire, with Tehran residents saying they witnessed one of the “heaviest” rounds of attacks by Israel. Local officials say nine people have been killed in northern Iran
- Israel’s emergency service says four people were killed in Beersheba. Rescue teams tell our correspondent a building was hit where residents had been sheltering
Another brilliant analogy Royce, and 100% on point. All Cultures and Peoples are not the same, nor are they equal. Liberals and Democrats continue to play that same failing card, over and over again.
A card played to the very detriment, of their own Citizens.