If “normal” relations are established, what would that look like considering all the factors and variables involved?
A moment ago, I watched the POTUS press conference at the Hague. Naturally, there were a number of questions about The 12-Day War, as it’s being called, i.e. the Iran-Israel war, the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the ceasefire, and what he foresees possibly happening in the future with Iran.
The President believes he can negotiate trade deals with Iran and that Iran will comply and behave accordingly. He said Iranians are great business people and very good at trade. He at least admits that if peace happens– in whatever form that will be– he doesn’t know for how long Iran will stay in line and not try to build the bomb.
Here it comes… Culture eats strategy for breakfast. Does the President and his administration understand that the Iranian Islamic Republic’s entire raison d’être is Shia Islam, that they are theocratic, self-righteous, sanctimonious, Utopian, extremist supremacists, that has as one of its core beliefs an Islamic prophecy about the return of the Mahdi in the end times?
Utopian ideologies, the self-righteous and the sanctimonious (often heavily peppered with victimhood) and have proven to be the most repressive, brutal and deadly in history; refer to Nazism, communism, Maoism, Islamism, etc. At its core, Islamism, be it Sunni or Shia and their offshoots, is religiopolitical, it is a political ideology, and it is very Utopian.
Iran’s religious leaders believe in the return of a prophesized saviour, the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, or simply ‘the Mahdi’. His return is associated with a time of conflicts, wars, and “Al-Malḥamat Al-Kubra” or “The Greatest Battle”. They believe that when the Mahdi returns at the end of times, peace and justice will be established.
The Iranian Ayatollahs appeared, and still appear, keen on self-fulfilling prophecy, with their efforts to build nuclear bombs while shouting death and destruction to Israel, to America, to the UK, etc. When Adolf Hitler and the Nazies did the horrible things they did as it was laid out in the NSDAP bible, Mein Kampf, people were surprised. People were projecting what they thought was good and common sense or what they thought was the impossible; they couldn’t imagine the worst; you’d hear people in the 30s, 40s, during the war saying things like, “Nah, Germany won’t round up Jews and exterminate them. Germany is a civilized country.” As I’ve pointed out, Iran’s Supreme Leader has openly said that these calls for death to Israel, America, etc., are not just for show, it’s policy. There’s no reason for us to project on the Ayatollahs in Iran what we think is rational when they are openly saying what they believe and what their goals are, be they short-term or long-term. These religious leaders to think long-term.
If some form of normalized relations are established between Washington and Tehran, how that will appear, I can’t say. The POTUS said today that a peace treaty wasn’t necessary, and I think I get what he was getting at. Meanwhile, I’m not sure the Iranians would sign a peace treaty considering their pride, who they are and what they believe. But the cult-like religiosity and desire for the return of the Mahdi, the “policy” for the destruction of Israel, America, and the UK, is inseparable from this regime in power, and this cannot be ignored. Perhaps with any sort of “normalized” relations with Iran, the public rallies calling for the destruction of nations might be more toned down at the least, but the core belief will remain. Unless there is a regime change to a more secular liberal government, the threat from the theocratic fanatics will exist; the Mullahs think long term. The powerful Shia Crescent that reached Yemen and Lebanon was a result of long-term goals. The Crescent took time to build, but the Crescent has largely fallen apart in the last couple of months. Islam has been around for 1400 years… They have time. (The Sunni vs Shia divide is a 1400-year-old civil war within Islam; they haven’t settled their differences or buried their hatreds, but will put on a friendly face and get along when needed, re: Chinese brokered diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Iran was what they had to do for the public, for the Muslim world, but behind the scenes, I suspect the Saudi Crown Prince was giving a smile, a nod, a wink and a thumbs up to Israel.)
I am going to say it: deception is sanctioned in their scripture, and the Iranian regime applies this readily, it is par for the course. The fact is that Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian areas (re: Gaza and the West Bank), and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria still exist. How would any form of normalized relations with the US look with these proxy terrorist groups existing and/or still in action? Would Iran abandon them, cut them off? Anything is possible.
Should there be “normalized” relations between the present regime in Tehran and Washington, how that will look, what would that involve, with what concessions, and how that will hold will be interesting to see. However, perhaps normalization won’t occur. I am sure Washington knows what’s involved, but maybe the POTUS is too self-assured about Iran normalizing relations. Let’s see.
–RdM
“Culture eats strategy for breakfast” is definitely part of the equation, that the West has failed to consider. The Muslim world sees itself in the long-distance race, with a few surges on the way, against the west, as well as the East. The UK is the good example, shortly followed by France, Belgium, Germany, Spain and others. The West is seen as soft and greedy thus more susceptible to outside influences and corrupt. The East is still rising thus still hard and little more difficult to influence
In the last 4 plus decades, Iran is racing to win the leadership of the Muslim world, follow by Turkey and Egypt, with no money, and Saudi, the richest, but has somewhat lost, its moral standing. It’s an internal battle within Islam, that is also going to try to draw in and manipulate outsiders. We are seeing it within the EU, and how they are enticed by markets and ignore some of its members request for support and security concerns…. Some within the EU have started to see how the Middle East is influencing their political, economy and cultures, but are slow to show strong backbone and response.
Time will tell ….