I’ve been pretty much out of action lately, especially over the holidays, but I hope to be back in action soon.
The big news, of course, is the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Moros, during a large-scale military operation inside Venezuela.
With this raid, there are endless opinions, commentary, emotions, reactions and questions.
One question is what’s next for Venezuela, especially if US President Trump is saying the US will run Venezuela for the interim, yet there are no US troops in the country. As I write this, it’s a mystery.
A little while ago, I commented on a LinkedIn post by former CSIS analyst Phil Gurski in response to another person’s comment about Mexico and what the US might do there. See: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/phil-gurski-8942468_as-despicable-as-maduro-was-in-venezuela-activity-7413264543071547392-WIO0?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAALG3h0BmCuAbEV3iAYJNZHCQ1bHqD_qO9k
After my two replies, I thought I’d do a quick write-up about Mexico.
Because of Trump’s latest statements, some are speculating that Trump might invade Mexico or some such. I don’t believe he will, but there are a few things I could foresee.
First, Mexican President Sheinbaum isn’t Maduro, who had indictments, was in bed with Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, was a drug traficker, directly involved with narcoterrorism, was de facto at war with the US, intentionally sowing chaos, instability and crime, and was a wanted man with a 50 million dollar reward for him—for context, Biden also did not recognize Maduro as a legitimate leader and had put a 25 million dollar price on his head, thereby making him a wanted criminal even under the previous administration.
It’s a very different dynamic with Sheinbaum and Mexico vs Maduro and Venezuela. The cartels run Mexico, but Sheinbaym isn’t a wanted criminal directly involved with cartels and trafficking (and dealing with Iran, Hezbollah and Russia). And she certainly is not in a de facto war with the US.
However, there could be grounds for the US to do cross-border military raids/incursions to strike at cartels, particularly those that are now designated as terrorists operating inside Mexico.
The precedent for a cross-border attack on an enemy (or terrorists) based in a country with which the attacking country is not at war was set by Canada (under British rule) during the 1837 Rebellions. It is based on the legitimacy of pre-emptive (mixed punitive) strikes inside another country to eliminate military threats. It is the ‘principle of “anticipatory self-defense” in international law.’ There are numerous examples of countries carrying out such cross-border or pre-emptive actions since 1837, e.g., Israel, Portugal in Africa, Rhodesia, the US in Vietnam (re Cambodia), Iraq into Syria, Turkey, the Second Gulf War, etc. And very contextually related, there is the example of The Pancho Villa Expedition in Mexico by US forces under Brigadier General John J. Pershing— though some would argue this was a punitive action.
The 1837 incident that set the precedent is known as the Caroline Affair. To read more about the affair visit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_affair
and
visit: The Canadian Encyclopedia: https://thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/caroline
A Royal Navy captain, Andrew Drew, helped lead “Canadian militiamen and law enforcement officials across the Canada–United States border” on this raid. Drew was living in my hometown when he did this. There’s a historic plaque today about Captain Drew and the Caroline Affair at his former house.
Keep in mind that the White House’s terrorist designations of certain criminal organizations in Mexico, Venezuela, Haiti, etc., have changed everything. This put things on a military footing. Designating them as terrorists offers the White House a claim of legitimacy for the raid to capture Maduro, whether anyone likes it or not.
And because some Mexican cartels are designated as terrorist organizations, this provides the grounds for striking at cartels inside Mexico, with or without the Mexican government’s approval—again, refer to the Caroline Affair that set the standards for international law.
I’m not predicting what the US will do regarding Mexico and the cartel problem there, but I am providing a possible scenario.
The terrorist designations helped set things up for taking Maduro.
This is a regional and US national security issue.
US forces were blowing cartel boats out of the water because, with the terrorist designation, the operations are military actions hitting enemy combatants. It’s a new ballgame.
If US forces can take out terrorists in Syria and Iraq on the other side of the planet, and that is acceptable, the US can argue, why aren’t they allowed to take out terrorists closer to the US and on the border?
Everything is set up to see cross-border attacks by US security forces striking at cartels and their leadership in Mexico. This doesn’t mean it will happen, but don’t be surprised if it does.
–RdM
