“Under the National Pact, the President and the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces are always selected from the Maronite community.”
Other than the analysis contained herein, here’s a little bit of background and personal experience that connects to Aoun:
I find it interesting that Joseph Aoun served during the Elimination War (31 January – 13 October 1990) as a lieutenant in the Maghaweer Commando Regiment.
The Elimination War, also known as the Aoun-Geagea War, was an inter-Christian fight in Lebanon in the late stages of the Civil War.
Joseph Aoun took part in the Battle of Adma and took command of the regiment after its commander, Bassam Gergi, was killed.
The Adma battle was one of the final battles of the 15-year Lebanese Civil War. The bulk of this battle’s fighting happened in Adma wa Dafna area, north of the port of Jounieh
This is maybe worth sharing; I got a tiny taste of this battle. Long story short, I was briefly stuck in Jounieh during this fighting in February 1990. Lebanese Forces (LF) (commanded by Samir Geagea) fired rockets into Adma area north of Jounieh, as well as firing south into Beirut, into areas held by the Lebanese Army (commanded by General Michel Aoun– no relation to Joseph Aoun). Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army fired rockets into LF-held Jounieh, where I happened to be.
Before arriving in Jounieh, I remember reading print-out reports at a media press machine in Cairo’s Nile Hilton about how the artillery mixed with the thunder from the bad weather.
Indeed, as I discovered, the weather was bad in that area of the Med at that time. The day after arriving in Jounieh, I remember waking up to thunder, but it seemed too consistent in timing. I stepped out from the sand bagged bomb shelter and saw that it was thunder mixed in with rockets being fired at a slow rate, a single rocket at a time, from the mountain above just east of us, and hitting targets north towards Adma. Then I remembered the faxed reports at the Nile Hilton in Cairo about artillery being mixed with thunder. How true.
I believe Lt. Joseph Aoun was there on the receiving end of those rockets fired from that ‘Stalin’s organ’ by the LF, pounding those Lebanese Army positions.
Anyhoo… The President of Lebanon doesn’t have a lot of teeth to the position. Joseph Aoun’s desire to have the Lebanese government, the state, holding exclusive rights to possess weapons, a hint that he (and the government) would try to have Hezbollah disarm… well… good luck to him but it could end badly for Aoun if he tries.
At least what Aoun has going for him, as well as those in the Lebanese government who are not Hezbollah and Iran lackeys, is that Assad is gone, Syria and the Assad regime is no longer going to back Hezbollah (or dictate terms in Lebanon); Hezbollah is isolated.
–RdM
Addendum: After I posted this, I had a conversation with someone about the effectiveness of the Katyusha and BM-type rocket systems. These can be effective used right, but these also have a psychological factor with the amount that comes raining down on an enemy. Nonetheless, I told him that “…there was one Organ firing from the mountain at Adma, as I mentioned in the blog, where they were firing one rocket at a time across the area, so it was more targeted, it was being sighted in. Fire and adjust. You could see the buildings they were targeting and hitting. It was interesting to watch. The LF had the high vantage point in that case and could do this.” It was slow, patient, not a barrage. But they also fired barrages from multiple trucks in the port area.— RdM
FDD Report, ‘New Era’: Lebanon Elects Former LAF Commander Joseph Aoun President’: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/01/09/new-era-lebanon-elects-former-laf-commander-joseph-aoun-president
Latest Developments
- Lebanon Chooses New President: Lebanon’s parliament elected Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Joseph Aoun to be the country’s next president. Aoun, who has been backed by both the United States and Saudi Arabia, vowed a “new era” for Lebanon in his acceptance speech on January 9. The parliament’s successful vote for Aoun follows 12 unsuccessful attempts to fill the presidency after it was vacated in 2022 by Michel Aoun (who is not related to Joseph Aoun). — This is the same Michel Aoun who led the Lebanese Army during the 1990 War of Elinination, re my earlier comments about the Battle of Elimination– RdM
- Aoun Vows Monopolization of Arms, Removal of Israel From Southern Lebanon: During his acceptance speech, Aoun pledged to ensure that the Lebanese state holds the exclusive right to possess weapons, an apparent reference to the large arsenal held by the Iran-backed, Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah. Aoun also vowed to end the IDF’s presence in southern Lebanon, saying that he would oversee discussions of a “strategic defense policy that enables the state to remove Israeli occupation from all territories.” Aoun’s election comes amidst a 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel that requires the IDF to withdraw from Lebanese territory, the LAF to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River.
- Hezbollah Reluctantly Votes Aoun: Hezbollah’s parliamentary representatives said they had backed Aoun during the second round of voting for the sake of “national cohesion” but withheld during the first round in order to “send a message” that Hezbollah remains the “protectors of sovereignty.” The terrorist organization’s parliamentarians notably sat silent during a large round of applause that greeted Aoun’s pledge for a state monopoly on the possession of weapons.
FDD Expert Response
“Aoun’s election is an overdue milestone for Lebanon — but expectations should be tempered. Lebanon’s president lacks the constitutional authority to order Hezbollah’s disarmament, and Aoun was elected as another ‘consensus president’ with Hezbollah’s votes. They wouldn’t vote for a man who would set in motion a process leading to their disarmament.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow
“Israel’s military success in Lebanon and the strings attached to Gulf reconstruction money forced Hezbollah to concede this round, cut its losses, and elect a president it had vetoed for 802 days. However, Lebanon is not out of the woods yet. Aoun promised the disarming of Hezbollah, and until that happens, the international community must remain focused and see to it that the Iran-backed militia does not stage a comeback.” — Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Research Fellow
“Joseph Aoun’s selection as president ends a two-year vacancy in Lebanon’s highest office, but the optimism expressed by the United States and France is premature. Before the second round of elections, Aoun met with Hezbollah representatives to discuss issues such as the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and government formation. For those anticipating a significant shift in the Lebanese government’s stance toward Hezbollah, disappointment is likely.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst
FDD Report
Very interesting commentary Royce. I have many Christian and Druze Friends from Lebanon. They had to pack the whole Family up and leave. You can imagine their frustration with ‘ liberals ” in Canada.
Cheers!
Lebanon was the only Christian Arab nation in the world. Not anymore, especially after the Civil War. The Lebanon was pretty much created as a land for the Maronites. Because of the civil war– largely sparked by the Palestinians– there was a large emigration of Christians to other nations; and then add to that that Shia and Sunni Muslims had more children on average, so what was a majority Christian Arab country has the Christians today making up 30% to 35% of the population.