The Islamabad Memorandum, i.e., the memorandum of understanding (MOU), a.k.a the US-Iran agreement, was signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, but will it hold?
The White House should understand the culture, mindset, conduct, core beliefs and objectives of Iran’s Islamic Republic and its Mullahs. Culture eats strategy for breakfast. (RE: Iran, Twelver Shia Islam, the Return of al-Mahdi… Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? See: https://roycedemelo.com/2026/03/18/iran-twelver-shia-islam-the-return-of-al-mahdi-self-fulfilling-prophecy/ )
And what does Paragraph 1 of the MOU mean for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and for the country of Lebanon as a whole?
Does this mean Hezbollah will be cut off by Iran? I doubt it.
Will Hezbollah behave? I doubt it.
How will Israel react to this agreement? They won’t stand for any attacks by Hezbollah without retaliation, most likely.
Islamabad Memorandum: Paragraph 1
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operations against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
➨ Read the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, Defense News: https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/17/read-the-14-point-memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-united-states-and-iran/
Frankly, I have doubts the agreement will hold, but I could be wrong.
The agreement has Iran coming out of this deal looking like the winners, IMHO, and that’s unfortunate.
Iranians are celebrating in the streets. See: https://www.newsweek.com/iran-is-celebrating-a-deal-with-the-us-now-the-fight-begins-at-home-12090362
I am wondering if something is up, whether the US and Iran are playing some sort of game that will eventually lead one or the other or both, to overtly or covertly violate the agreement.
Perhaps neither party expects the agreement to hold.
Let’s see.
–RdM
ADDENDUM:
With threats like these, claiming that the war is not over, coming from a horse’s mouth out of Tehran, and only a day after the agreement was signed, again, I have doubts the agreement will hold. And, again, I could be wrong.
Culture eats strategy for breakfast.
🔴 MEMRI — Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani: The War with the United States Is Not Over – It Is Ongoing
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani said in a June 18, 2026 appearance on IRINN TV (Iran) that the war between Iran and the United States is not over, declaring: “It is ongoing.” He said that the conflict with the United States is an existential war that has continued for 47 years because the Iranian people rejected the post-World War II world order. According to Zakani, the United States cannot tolerate a nation that serves as an inspiration to others seeking to prevent the “Great Satan” from exerting its “mischief.” He added that the Islamic Republic’s ideology is centered on building a “new Islamic civilization” in preparation for the appearance of the Mahdi, and that a powerful Iran is essential to this goal, meaning that “it is entirely obvious” that Iran remains in the midst of war with the United States.
Zakani said that Iran’s victories in this war should pave the way for even greater triumphs. Comparing the conflict to the first round of a wrestling match, he said Iran had scored points but had not yet pinned its opponent to the mat. “We have achieved a baseline victory,” he said, “but higher levels of triumph still lie ahead.” He concluded that all future threats against Iran must end and that the United States should never again dare to threaten the country.