This is a follow-up: On the 28th of June, and three days after I wrote the article below, the POTUS announced that he will not be lifting sanctions on Iran. His hopes for peace and normalization with Iran are likely dashed by the reality that Iran will not change its…
Mozambique
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Former CSIS terrorism analyst Phil Gurski and I had a great discussion on his Borealis podcast about the Jihadi insurgency in Mozambique.
How serious is the jihadi threat in Mozambique? ▶Have a listen: https://borealisthreatandrisk.com/how-serious-is-the-jihadi-threat-in-mozambique/ Episode 279 – What, another ISIS affiliate in Africa? ‘Mozambique achieved independence in 1974 after a long civil war with its former Portuguese colonial power. Like most African nations, however, peace and stability are not that common in the…
Iran
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POTUS Foresees Trade and Some Form of Normalized Relations with Iran; Possible? But What About The Regime’s Dogmatic Raison D’être?
If “normal” relations are established, what would that look like considering all the factors and variables involved? A moment ago, I watched the POTUS press conference at the Hague. Naturally, there were a number of questions about The 12-Day War, as it’s being called, i.e. the Iran-Israel war, the US…
Iran
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Iran, Strong Horse Culture, Staying on Point…
About Iran, as I always say, Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast Understanding culture and how it dictates societies, moulds groupthink, influences people’s thoughts, rationalizations (or lack thereof), behaviour, habits, customs, world view, mentality, beliefs, history, conflicts, etc., particularly as it applies to the Middle East, is something that can’t be…
Iran
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Know your enemy. Understand your enemy. BREAKING: Trump announces Iran, Israel have agreed to ‘complete and total ceasefire’
🟢Fox News– Just in: Trump announces Iran, Israel have agreed to ‘complete and total ceasefire’ “The President, without, knock on wood, having a single American casualty, obliterated the Iranian nuclear program… What that means, I think, is we have to talk to Iran and, of course, to Israel about what…
Iran-Israel War
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Al Jazeera: ‘Israel threatens to kill Iran’s supreme leader after missile strikes’
This is probably not an empty threat, as there is a good chance that Israel and US intel know where Khamenei is at any one time. But maybe they don’t. But going by past performance, they likely know where the big man is at any time. There are many Israelis…
British Army
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BFBS Forces News: US military parade raises eyebrows among drill aficionados. Is British best? To drill or not to drill…
I will be frank, the video below of those American troops marching… Not good. I remember a couple of former Royal Marines whom I had worked with who said they hadn’t done much drill. One said there was no need. Is this true about the Royal Marines? US Marines can…
The Africa Corps
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Russia’s Africa Corps Has Released a Video Today of Mi-24s in Action While There Are Unconfirmed Reports that the Helicopters Have Been Downed
See LinkedIn posting: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/royce-de-melo-39172813_mali-mi24-hind-activity-7340424613354459137-g2ga?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAALG3h0BmCuAbEV3iAYJNZHCQ1bHqD_qO9k While there are reports that came out on 13th of June of an FLA ambush on Mali Security Forces and the Russian PMC The Africa Corps (TAC), the Russians appear to be quiet about the attack. I guess it’s a bad look that with their big…
The Africa Corps
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Reports of Russia’s Africa Corps Taking Losses in Mali
See LinkedIn posting and video: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/royce-de-melo-39172813_mali-maliarmy-securityforces-activity-7340418536235769856-avrr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAALG3h0BmCuAbEV3iAYJNZHCQ1bHqD_qO9k There are reports that the FLA ambush cost Mali security forces and the Africa Corps (TAC) PMC dearly. Sources say there were:• 5 vehicles taken• 8 trucks destroyed• 2 armored vehicles destroyed• 1 Mi-24 destroyed on land• 1 Mi-24 hit in the air and…
Middle East
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It’s Getting Hot in the Middle East; Former IDF Intel Chief Says “it’s time to end the leadership of the Axis of Evil”
IMHO, there is a chance that Iran will do its retaliations for show and then back down, as they have done in the past. But let’s see what happens. However, the taking out of Iranian leadership within Iran and destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities might result in seeing this round of…